Forex - Asia currency summary
Asian currency rates against the US dollar as of 0850 GMT (vs previous late levels):
-Australian dollar: 1.1348 (1.1273)
-Hong Kong dollar: 7.7981 (7.7986)
-Indian rupee: 39.375 (39.375)
-Indonesian rupiah: 9,303.0 ( 9,279.0)
-Japanese yen: 111.28 (112.07)
-Korean won: 924.00 (923.50)
-Malaysian ringgit: 3.3145 (3.3125)
-Philippine peso: 41.275 (42.190)
-Singapore dollar: 1.4426 (1.4420)
-Taiwan dollar: 32.375 (32.345)
-Thai baht: 30.350 (30.350)
While the smaller-than-expected cut initially boosted the dollar, this rise was short-lived as markets believe the Fed is acting behind the curve and will eventually have to lower rates more in the future. The Fed acknowledged in its statement that both growth and inflation risks had increased, suggesting it does not yet know which side the balance is going to tip.
'The Fed is expressing uncertainty at a time when financial markets require leadership,' said Hans Redeker at BNP Paribas. He said the price pressures in the economy mean the Fed is unable to operate ahead of the curve, so 'the Fed will have to sacrifice more economic growth to bring inflation down.' Although the moderate rate decision has cleared the risk of a sharp dollar sell-off into the new year, the Fed's policy will continue to be highly data and market-dependent, analysts said.
'We believe slower growth, tight credit conditions and a comforting core inflation reading will encourage the Fed to implement further insurance easing to protect against the downside risks to growth, and we look for two 25-point reductions in Q1 of 2008,' said Daragh Maher at Calyon. Meanwhile, the euro was mildly stronger against the yen and pound, with investors looking to data for more direction.
Euro zone industrial output is expected to rise 0.2 pct on the month in October after a 0.7 pct decline in September. The yearly rate is expected to pick up to 3.9 pct from 3.5 pct. In the UK, the pound will be similarly data-driven today, with the focus firmly on the labour market data. The claimant count is predicted to show a 5,000 decrease, half the 9,900 decrease recorded in October.
More importantly, average earnings growth will be watched for pipeline inflationary pressures in the labour market. The headline rate is expected to accelerate somewhat in October, to an annual rate of 4.2 pct from 4.1 pct in September. Excluding bonuses, however, earnings growth is forecast to remain at 3.7 pct.
London 0905 GMT Hong Kong 0500 GMT US dollar 111.31 yen up from 110.92 yen 1.1323 sfr up from 1.1309 sfr Euro 1.4682 usd up from 1.4658 usd 163.43 yen up from 162.64 yen 1.6624 sfr up from 1.6582 sfr 0.7185 stg down from 0.7195 stg Sterling 2.0435 usd up from 2.0369 usd 227.46 yen up from 225.96 yen 2.3138 sfr up from 2.3037 sfr Australian dollar 0.8810 usd up from 0.8756 usd 0.4322 stg up from 0.4299 stg 98.05 yen up from 97.14 yen.
-Australian dollar: 1.1348 (1.1273)
-Hong Kong dollar: 7.7981 (7.7986)
-Indian rupee: 39.375 (39.375)
-Indonesian rupiah: 9,303.0 ( 9,279.0)
-Japanese yen: 111.28 (112.07)
-Korean won: 924.00 (923.50)
-Malaysian ringgit: 3.3145 (3.3125)
-Philippine peso: 41.275 (42.190)
-Singapore dollar: 1.4426 (1.4420)
-Taiwan dollar: 32.375 (32.345)
-Thai baht: 30.350 (30.350)
Dollar Forward Rates
New York 1 mth 24.51 - 23.76 prm 3 mths 68.50 - 67.50 prm 6 mths 137.70 - 136.20 prm 12 mths 282.25 - 279.25 prmDollar gives up gains made in wake of Fed rate cut
The dollar lost the gains it had temporarily made after the Federal Reserve last night cut interest rates by only 25 basis points, disappointing minority expectations for a more aggressive cut. There was one dissenting vote at the Fed for a greater 50 point cut, while the discount rate -- at which banks borrow from the Fed, determining liquidity levels -- was also cut by only 25 points, against market expectations for a 50-point cut.While the smaller-than-expected cut initially boosted the dollar, this rise was short-lived as markets believe the Fed is acting behind the curve and will eventually have to lower rates more in the future. The Fed acknowledged in its statement that both growth and inflation risks had increased, suggesting it does not yet know which side the balance is going to tip.
'The Fed is expressing uncertainty at a time when financial markets require leadership,' said Hans Redeker at BNP Paribas. He said the price pressures in the economy mean the Fed is unable to operate ahead of the curve, so 'the Fed will have to sacrifice more economic growth to bring inflation down.' Although the moderate rate decision has cleared the risk of a sharp dollar sell-off into the new year, the Fed's policy will continue to be highly data and market-dependent, analysts said.
'We believe slower growth, tight credit conditions and a comforting core inflation reading will encourage the Fed to implement further insurance easing to protect against the downside risks to growth, and we look for two 25-point reductions in Q1 of 2008,' said Daragh Maher at Calyon. Meanwhile, the euro was mildly stronger against the yen and pound, with investors looking to data for more direction.
Euro zone industrial output is expected to rise 0.2 pct on the month in October after a 0.7 pct decline in September. The yearly rate is expected to pick up to 3.9 pct from 3.5 pct. In the UK, the pound will be similarly data-driven today, with the focus firmly on the labour market data. The claimant count is predicted to show a 5,000 decrease, half the 9,900 decrease recorded in October.
More importantly, average earnings growth will be watched for pipeline inflationary pressures in the labour market. The headline rate is expected to accelerate somewhat in October, to an annual rate of 4.2 pct from 4.1 pct in September. Excluding bonuses, however, earnings growth is forecast to remain at 3.7 pct.
London 0905 GMT Hong Kong 0500 GMT US dollar 111.31 yen up from 110.92 yen 1.1323 sfr up from 1.1309 sfr Euro 1.4682 usd up from 1.4658 usd 163.43 yen up from 162.64 yen 1.6624 sfr up from 1.6582 sfr 0.7185 stg down from 0.7195 stg Sterling 2.0435 usd up from 2.0369 usd 227.46 yen up from 225.96 yen 2.3138 sfr up from 2.3037 sfr Australian dollar 0.8810 usd up from 0.8756 usd 0.4322 stg up from 0.4299 stg 98.05 yen up from 97.14 yen.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar