Senin, Desember 03, 2007

Event at Tuesday, 4 December 2007

Time(GMT): Currency: Event: Forecast: Previous:
12:01am GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 1.3% 1.0%

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor measures the change in value of like-for-like (i.e. same-store) sales at surveyed retailers, which effectively excludes stores that have been open for less than a year.

12:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.8%

Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.

12:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m -1.9% 6.8%

Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because obtaining a permit is one of the first steps in the home construction process. Permits therefore act as a leading indicator for the housing market. A high level of housing activity signals that the construction industry is healthy and that consumers have the capital to make large investments. More importantly, new housing activity creates an economic ripple effect as home owners buy goods such as appliances and furniture for their homes, and builders buy raw materials and hire more workers to meet demand.

10:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.4% 0.4%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.

2:00pm CAD Interest Rate Statement 4.5% 4.5%

Eight times per year the Bank of Canada (BOC) Governing Council meets to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "overnight rate"). Shortly after the meeting they release a statement that contains the decided rate, a brief commentary of the economic conditions that effected their decision, and most importantly, clues regarding the outcome of future meetings. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down.

10:30pm AUD Interest Rate Statement 6.75% 6.75%

Each month, excluding January, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board meets to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "cash rate"). The Board announces the decided rate shortly after the meeting, and when there is a change in rates they also releases a statement that contains the economic conditions that effected their decision. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 3%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down.

Technical Outlook at Sunday, 3 Dec 2007

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4693 1.4785, 1.4676

USD/ JPY 110.90 111.21, 109.64

GBP/ USD 2.0571 2.0698, 2.0532

USD/ CHF 1.1278 1.1290, 1.1159

AUD/ USD 0.8847 0.8894, 0.8808

USD/CAD 0.9992 1.0011, 0.9920

NZD/USD 0.7670 0.7752, 0.7664

EUR/ JPY 162.88 163.82, 161.82

EUR/ GBP 0.7140 0.7163, 0.7128

EUR/ CHF 1.6570 1.6587, 1.6479

GBP/ JPY 228.08 229.31, 226.10

CHF/ JPY 98.26 99.05, 98.12

Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD - USD/ JPY

L1. 1.4160 1.4780 111.40 116.55

L2. 1.4045 1.4870 110.25 118.35

L3. 1.3950 1.4990 106.95 120.55

GBP/ USD - USD/ CHF

L1. 2.0600 2.1140 1.1160 1.1465

L2. 2.0445 2.1230 1.1030 1.1575

L3. 2.0240 2.1350 1.0900 1.1715

AUD/ USD - USD/ CAD

L1. 0.9010 0.9410 0.9020 0.9570

L2. 0.8925 0.9500 0.8940 0.9665

L3. 0.8805 0.9615 0.8830 0.9825

NZD/ USD - EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.7625 0.7890 163.85 168.00

L2. 0.7555 0.7970 162.90 168.80

L3. 0.7415 0.8080 161.75 169.95

EUR/ GBP - EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.6915 0.7020 1.6510 1.6850

L2. 0.6840 0.7070 1.6400 1.6920

L3. 0.6710 0.7140 1.6290 1.7040

GBP/ JPY - CHF/ JPY

L1. 232.50 243.55 98.15 100.70

L2. 231.60 246.95 96.95 101.85

L3. 230.20 251.10 94.45 102.90