Hot Forex News Today - 12 Dec 2007

Forex - Asia currency summary

Asian currency rates against the US dollar as of 0850 GMT (vs previous late levels):
-Australian dollar: 1.1348 (1.1273)
-Hong Kong dollar: 7.7981 (7.7986)
-Indian rupee: 39.375 (39.375)
-Indonesian rupiah: 9,303.0 ( 9,279.0)
-Japanese yen: 111.28 (112.07)
-Korean won: 924.00 (923.50)
-Malaysian ringgit: 3.3145 (3.3125)
-Philippine peso: 41.275 (42.190)
-Singapore dollar: 1.4426 (1.4420)
-Taiwan dollar: 32.375 (32.345)
-Thai baht: 30.350 (30.350)

Dollar Forward Rates

New York 1 mth 24.51 - 23.76 prm 3 mths 68.50 - 67.50 prm 6 mths 137.70 - 136.20 prm 12 mths 282.25 - 279.25 prm

Dollar gives up gains made in wake of Fed rate cut

The dollar lost the gains it had temporarily made after the Federal Reserve last night cut interest rates by only 25 basis points, disappointing minority expectations for a more aggressive cut. There was one dissenting vote at the Fed for a greater 50 point cut, while the discount rate -- at which banks borrow from the Fed, determining liquidity levels -- was also cut by only 25 points, against market expectations for a 50-point cut.

While the smaller-than-expected cut initially boosted the dollar, this rise was short-lived as markets believe the Fed is acting behind the curve and will eventually have to lower rates more in the future. The Fed acknowledged in its statement that both growth and inflation risks had increased, suggesting it does not yet know which side the balance is going to tip.

'The Fed is expressing uncertainty at a time when financial markets require leadership,' said Hans Redeker at BNP Paribas. He said the price pressures in the economy mean the Fed is unable to operate ahead of the curve, so 'the Fed will have to sacrifice more economic growth to bring inflation down.' Although the moderate rate decision has cleared the risk of a sharp dollar sell-off into the new year, the Fed's policy will continue to be highly data and market-dependent, analysts said.

'We believe slower growth, tight credit conditions and a comforting core inflation reading will encourage the Fed to implement further insurance easing to protect against the downside risks to growth, and we look for two 25-point reductions in Q1 of 2008,' said Daragh Maher at Calyon. Meanwhile, the euro was mildly stronger against the yen and pound, with investors looking to data for more direction.

Euro zone industrial output is expected to rise 0.2 pct on the month in October after a 0.7 pct decline in September. The yearly rate is expected to pick up to 3.9 pct from 3.5 pct. In the UK, the pound will be similarly data-driven today, with the focus firmly on the labour market data. The claimant count is predicted to show a 5,000 decrease, half the 9,900 decrease recorded in October.

More importantly, average earnings growth will be watched for pipeline inflationary pressures in the labour market. The headline rate is expected to accelerate somewhat in October, to an annual rate of 4.2 pct from 4.1 pct in September. Excluding bonuses, however, earnings growth is forecast to remain at 3.7 pct.

London 0905 GMT Hong Kong 0500 GMT US dollar 111.31 yen up from 110.92 yen 1.1323 sfr up from 1.1309 sfr Euro 1.4682 usd up from 1.4658 usd 163.43 yen up from 162.64 yen 1.6624 sfr up from 1.6582 sfr 0.7185 stg down from 0.7195 stg Sterling 2.0435 usd up from 2.0369 usd 227.46 yen up from 225.96 yen 2.3138 sfr up from 2.3037 sfr Australian dollar 0.8810 usd up from 0.8756 usd 0.4322 stg up from 0.4299 stg 98.05 yen up from 97.14 yen.

Forex Calendar at Thu - 13 Dec 2007

Forex Calendar for Tomorrow Thu - 13 Dec 2007

Time(GMT):	Currency:	Event:	Forecast:	Previous:
12:01am	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-28.5%	-22.2%
H O T	The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance measures the price change of homes in the UK. This leading indicator represents the percentage of chartered surveyors reporting a price rise in their designated area. For instance, a reading of 50% means that 50% more surveyors reported a rise than reported a fall in prices.
8:30am	CHF	Interest Rate Statement	2.75%	2.75%
H O T	Four times per year the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board meets to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "three-month libor"). Shortly after the meeting they release a statement that contains the decided rate, a brief commentary of the economic conditions that effected their decision, and most importantly, clues regarding the outcome of future meetings. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down.
11.00am	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	4	8
H O T	The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. A busy manufacturing industry is a positive sign that the economy is expanding, and this survey points to how busy manufacturers will be in the months to come as they work to fill new orders.
1:30pm	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.6%	0.2%
H O T	Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.
1:30pm	USD	PPI m/m	1.6%	0.1%
H O T	The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.
1:30pm	CAD	Labor Productivity q/q	0.1%	0.2%
	Measures the annualized quarterly growth in labor efficiency for producing goods and services outside the farming sector. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because a decrease in efficiency is comparable to an increase in wages. When businesses pay more for labor, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so traders view wage inflation as a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
11:50pm	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	21	23
H O T	Measures the general business conditions of large manufacturers. The index is derived from a quarterly survey that asks respondents to rate subjects such as general business conditions, supply and demand conditions for products and inventories, prices, sales, and employment conditions. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. The Tankan is released four times per year and is one of the nation's most respected gauges of economic health because manufacturers play a vital role in the large export industry. Traders pay special attention to the Tankan survey because it's one of the few growth indicators that is produced directly by the Bank of Japan.

Forex Calendar at Wed - 12 Dec 2007

Forex Calendar for Tomorrow Wed - 12 Dec 2007

Time(GMT):	Currency:	Event:	Forecast:	Previous:
9:30am	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/y	4.2%	4.1%
H O T	The Average Earnings Index (AEI) measures the average wage, including bonuses, paid to employees. The indicator reading represents the change in the current quarter when compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
9:30am	GBP	Claimant Count Change	-5.0%	-9.9%
H O T	Measures the change in number of people claiming unemployment related benefits during the previous month. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because working people tend to spend more money, and consumer spending makes up a large portion of GDP.
10.00am	EUR	Employment Change q/q		0.5%
H O T	Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous quarter. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP.
1:30pm	USD	Trade Balance	-57.3B	-56.5B
H O T	Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation's currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase the exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production, as domestic factories work to fill this demand.
1:30pm	USD	Import Price Index m/m	2.0%	1.8%
	Measures the monthly rate of inflation for imported goods.
1:30pm	CAD	Trade Balance	2.3B	2.6B
H O T	Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation's currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase the exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production, as domestic factories work to fill this demand.
9:45pm	NZD	Retail Sales m/m	0.0%	1.0%
H O T	Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.

Hot Forex News Today - 11 Dec 2007

Dollar falls against Euro, Pound, Yen

The dollar slid against most major currencies Monday with markets awaiting a decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve about a possible third interest rate cut this year. The 13-nation euro bought $1.4712 in late New York trading, up from $1.4655 late Friday. The British pound was a little higher, climbing to $2.0462 from $2.0315. The dollar fell to 111.67 Japanese yen from 111.69 yen Friday.

The Fed meets Tuesday to discuss interest rates, with analysts expecting the U.S. central bank to trim its key rate, now at 4.5 percent, by a quarter of a percentage point. Some have speculated about the possibility of a half-point cut. The expected cut would be the third amid mortgage problems in the U.S. that have tripped up borrowers and caused a credit crisis among banks -- fueling wider fears about the health of the U.S. economy.

Lower interest rates can jump-start an economy, but they can also weaken a currency as investors transfer funds to countries where they can earn higher returns. If the U.S. does cut rates, it will follow in the footsteps of the Bank of England, which last week cut its benchmark rate to 5.5 percent from 5.75 percent.

Canada's central bank also cut its rate to 4.25 percent. The European Central Bank kept its rate unchanged at 4 percent last week but appeared to set the stage for a possible rate decrease sometime in early 2008. The dollar fell to 1.1282 Swiss francs late Monday from 1.1292 francs. The U.S. currency rose to 1.0073 Canadian dollars, up from 1.0045 Friday.

US dollar mixed ahead of Federal Reserve's rate decision

The US dollar was mixed against major currencies halfway through the morning session in Sydney Tuesday after falling against the euro and sterling in New York overnight as investors positioned themselves for a US interest rate cut. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to lower rates at its meeting Tuesday to help reduce funding costs and jumpstart economic growth.

The only question is by how much. ''Another rate cut is virtually a done deal, but the size of the cut and the language of the statement are still uncertain,'' said currency strategists at Commonwealth Research. ''We continue to maintain that a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.25 percent will occur. Markets have also moved to price out the risk of a larger 50 basis point cut following the stronger-than-expected US payrolls data on Friday, but we view the implied 36 percent chance still being priced as too high.''

National Australia Bank head of currency strategy John Kyriakopoulos said the Fed's accompanying statement will be scrutinised for clues on the direction of monetary policy. ''Traders will also focus on what the Fed says about the credit crunch and its preparedness to cut interest rates further in the accompanying statement,'' Kyriakopoulos said. At 10.20 am (2320 GMT), one euro was buying 1.4716 dollars, unchanged from late New York trade.

The 13-nation currency was given a boost overnight after European Central Bank policy makers said they were concerned about inflation, making an interest rate rise more likely than a rate cut. The sterling was doing 2.0457 dollars, down from 2.0482 dollars overnight. The sterling was pushed higher in New York trade by UK government figures that showed house prices accelerated in October, going against the trend of other surveys that have shown prices falling in recent months.

The dollar was trading at 111.77 yen, up from 111.66 yen at the close of the US session, as demand for yen-funded carry trades tracked US markets higher. Wall Street strengthened after UBS announced a 10 billion dollar writedown on the value of investments backed by mortgages, which was considered a ''cleansing act'', said John Noonan, an analyst at Thomson IFR.

The Swiss investment bank also announced an 11.5 billion dollar cash injection from the government of Singapore and an unidentified Middle Eastern investor. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was up at 88.62 US cents from 88.46 cents on improved carry-trade demand.

''The near 10 percentage point improvement in our risk-appetite index over the past week has helped Australian dollar lift from just above 86.60 cents to just under 88.50 cents,'' said Kyriakopoulos. ''However, we suspect that 89.50 will provide stiff resistance unless expectations for a RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) rate hike in February are resurrected.''

Sydney at 10.20 am (2320 GMT) US dollar 111.77 yen 1.128 sfr Euro 1.4716 usd 164.47 yen 1.6598 sfr 0.7194 stg Sterling 2.0457 usd 228.639 yen 2.30711 sfr Australian dollar 0.8862 usd 0.4333 stg 99.055 yen New Zealand dollar 0.7824 usd.

Hot Forex News Today - 10 Dec 2007

Dollar Gains vs Euro, Yen on hopes US rate cut will be limited to 25 bps

The US dollar edged higher against the euro and yen in afternoon Asian trade Monday as investors bet the anticipated cut in US interest rates won't be as deep as 50 basis points as some analysts had predicted earlier. 'If the rate cut comes in at only 25 basis points and still be able to help the US economy avoid a recession, then it will be good for the dollar,' said Mark Wan, chief analyst at Hang Seng Investment Services Ltd.

'A 50 basis point cut is too much and that will be bad for the dollar.' At 1.00 pm (0500 GMT), the euro was quoted at 1.4642 dollars, down from 1.4657 in Sydney this morning. One dollar was buying 111.56 yen, up from 111.40. Friday's better-than-expected jobs data, the US government's move to help subprime borrowers and optimism that Christmas retail sales will be strong are helping boost confidence on the dollar, which has fallen to record lows against the euro after the Fed trimmed rates by a total of 75 basis points in September and October.

Lower rates reduce the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets because it would mean lower returns on investments. But it would boost the economy and help win back investors. 'The market is looking for a cut in rates of 25 basis points to 4.25 percent. Pricing in the market currently indicates a 90 percent chance that the Fed will cut the funds rate to 4.25 percent,' said Robert Henderson, chief markets economist at National Australia Bank.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 94,000 in November compared with the market's consensus forecast for an increase of about 80,000, easing fears the US economy is on the brink of slipping into recession. Unemployment was steady at 4.7 percent. 'The market is no longer pricing any chance of a cut of 50 basis points, as was the case a week or so ago,' said Henderson. The euro will probably weaken further to 1.43 dollars by year-end, Hang Seng's Wan said. He didn't have an estimate for the dollar/yen. Investors will be keenly watching for the Christmas retail sales numbers expected to be out end of the month, he said.

'We have to wait and see if the retail sales this month will be strong enough to lift the economy. There are hopes that it may come as strong as Thanksgiving sales,' Wan said. The International Monetary Fund is predicting the US economy will expand 1.9 percent in 2008, the same pace as this year. That's less than the 2.9 percent growth posted in 2006. The Fed will probably be on an easing mood until next year, Wan said. Hong Kong 100 pm (0500 GMT) US dollar 111.56 yen 1.1294 sfr Euro 1.4642 usd 163.35 yen 1.6538 sfr 0.7208 stg Sterling 2.0311 usd 226.58 yen 2.2941 sfr Australian dollar 0.8762 usd 0.4313 stg 97.74 yen New Zealand dollar 0.7731 usd.

Dollar steady as investors await US Internes Rate decision tomorrow

The dollar was steady against major currencies as investors await tomorrow evening's key interest rate decision by the US Federal Open Market Committee. The Fed is fully expected to deliver a further rate cut, which now looks more likely to be a smaller 25 basis point cut than a more aggressive 50 points given Friday's solid US jobs data, but uncertainty remains.

Peter Stoneham at Thomson IFR Markets said today has seen 'an understandably slow start for the euro (against the dollar) as the market uses the uncertainty surrounding tomorrow's US FOMC rate news as an excuse to take stock and weigh up the chances of a 1/4 or 1/2-point cut in rates'. Trading activity is also starting to slow ahead of the year end, he added.

On Friday, data revealed that the US economy created a solid 94,000 jobs in November, confirming that the slowdown in the country is probably not significant enough to prompt a half point rate cut. The news was slightly offset, however, by news that the University of Michigan measure of US consumer confidence sank to a 2-year low in December. Mitul Kotecha believes, however, that the market may still be 'overly dovish' on the prospect of further interest rate cuts next year, and the dollar is likely to gain if the Fed opts for a smaller quarter point rate cut.

'The dollar could benefit if the Fed does deliver a 25 basis point cut given the more dovish expectation priced into the futures market,' he said. Elsewhere, the pound was firmer in a moderate recovery after last week's hefty losses and ahead of the release of UK producer prices figures and government house price data this morning. Meanwhile, the focus in terms of data this week will centre on inflation indicators, with US PPI and CPI released on Thursday and Friday, while the final reading for euro zone CPI is also due out on Friday. Also of interest will be tomorrow's German ZEW economic sentiment survey.

London 0854 GMT Hong Kong 0500 GMT US dollar yen 111.67 up from 111.56 yen sfr 1.1294 unchanged Euro usd 1.4651 up from 1.4642 stg 0.7187 down from 0.7208 yen 163.62 up from 163.35 sfr 1.6547 up from 1.6538 Sterling usd 2.0381 up from 2.0311 yen 227.63 up from 226.58 sfr 2.3012 up from 2.2941 Australian dollar usd 0.8797 up from 0.8762 stg 0.4314 up from 0.4313 yen 98.24 up from 97.74 New Zealand dollar usd 0.7771 up from 0.7731.

Forex Calendar at Tue - 11 Dec 2007

Forex Calendar for Tomorrow Tue - 11 Dec 2007

Time(GMT):	Currency:	Event:	Forecast:	Previous:
5:00am	JPY	Household Confidence	42.8	42.8
	Measures the mood of households in regard to economic conditions. The reading is derived from a monthly survey that asks households to evaluate the prospects for the economy in the future. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. When consumers are optimistic they tend to purchase more goods and services, which stimulates the economy.
7:00am	AUD	RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
H O T	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens will speak at the Sydney Institute, in Sydney. As head of the central bank's governing body, which is responsible for setting the nation's short term interest rate, his speeches can sometimes cause market volatility as traders react to clues regarding future monetary policy.
9:30am	GBP	Trade Balance	-7.4B	-7.8B
H O T	Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation's currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase the exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production, as domestic factories work to fill this demand.
9:30am	GBP	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-34.5	-32.5
H O T	Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment measures institutional investor sentiment. The monthly indicator reflects the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of investors that are pessimistic. For example, if 30% of participants expect the economic situation to improve within the next six months, 30% expect no change and 40% expect the economic situation to deteriorate, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment would take a value of -10. Thus, a positive number means that the share of optimists outweighs the share of pessimists.
7:15pm	USD	Sentix Investor Confidence	4.25%	4.50%
H O T	Eight times per year the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) votes on where to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "federal funds rate"). Shortly after each vote, the FOMC releases a statement that contains the outcome of their vote, a brief commentary of the economic conditions that effected their decision, and most importantly, clues regarding the outcome of future votes. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down.
1:15pm	CAD	Discount Rate	4.75%	5.00%
H O T	Eight times per year the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) votes on where to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "federal funds rate"). The discount rate, which is the interest rate charged to commercial banks and other depository institutions on loans they receive from their regional Federal Reserve Bank's lending facility, is usually moved in tandem with the federal funds rate, but can also be moved independently. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency.
11:50pm	JPY	CGPI y/y
	The Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by corporations when purchasing goods. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because when businesses pay more for goods, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer.

Forex Calendar at Monday 10 Dec 2007

Forex Calendar for Tomorrow Mon - 10 Dec 2007

Time(GMT):	Currency:	Event:	Forecast:	Previous:
12:30am	AUD	Home Loans m/m	1.0%	-2.4%
H O T	Measures the number of commitments for owner occupied home financing. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because large purchases tend to be made by consumers that are optimistic and confident in their financial position. Additionally, consumer borrowing has a high degree of historical correlation with consumer spending, which is a major driver of the overall economy.
5:00am	JPY	Eco Watchers Survey	41.1	41.5
	Measures the mood of businesses that directly service consumers, such as barbers, taxi drivers, and waiters. A reading above 50 signals an improvement in sentiment.
7:00am	EUR	German Trade Balance	16.8B	18.1B
	Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation's currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase the exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production, as domestic factories work to fill this demand.
9:30am	GBP	PPI Input m/m	1.4%	1.8%
H O T	The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.
9:30pm	EUR	Sentix Investor Confidence	12.5	14.0
	Measures investor confidence towards the Euro-zone economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because it suggest that funds are more likely to invest in European securities, which tends to strengthen the economy.
1:15pm	CAD	Housing Starts	220K	228K
H O T	Measures the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because the housing market is a leading gauge for the overall economy. A high level of housing activity signals that the construction industry is healthy and that consumers have the capital to make large investments. More importantly, new housing activity creates an economic ripple effect as home owners buy goods such as appliances and furniture for their homes, and builders buy raw materials and hire more workers to meet demand.
3:00pm	USD	Pending Home Sales m/m	-1.0%	0.2%
H O T	Measures the number of signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001.
5:00pm	CAD	BOC Governor Dodge Speaks
H O T	Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor David Dodge will speak at the Empire Club of Canada, in Toronto. As head of the central bank's governing body, which is responsible for setting the nation's short term interest rate, his speeches can sometimes cause market volatility as traders react to clues regarding future monetary policy.

Event at Fri - 7 December 2007

Time(GMT):	Currency:	Event:	Forecast:	Previous:
12:01am	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate		0.7%
	The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimate is a prediction for the past month's official GDP using statistical projection techniques. NIESR is one of the UK's oldest independent economic research institutes and their estimates are widely reported in the press.
7:45am	EUR	French Government Budget Balance		-51.7B
	Measures the difference between the central government's monthly income and spending. A positive number indicates more revenue was received than spent during the month.
12.00pm	CAD	Employment Change	8.0K	63.0K
H O T	Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.
12:00pm	CAD	Unemployment Rate	5.9%	5.8%
	Measures the percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because working people tend to spend more money, and consumer spending makes up a large portion of GDP. This indicator doesn’t garner as much attention it's job-creation counterpart because traders generally view unemployment as a lagging indicator that gives little indication of the economy’s future performance.
1:30pm	USD	Nonfarm Employment Change	75K	166K
H O T	Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.
1:30pm	USD	Unemployment Rate	4.8%	4.7%
H O T	Measures the percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because working people tend to spend more money, and consumer spending makes up a large portion of GDP. This indicator doesn’t garner as much attention it's job-creation counterpart because traders generally view unemployment as a lagging indicator that gives little indication of the economy’s future performance.
1:30pm	USD	Average Hourly Earnings m/m	0.3%	0.2%
	Measures the rate of inflation found in the wages paid to nonfarm jobholders. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When businesses pay more for labor, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so traders view wage inflation as a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
3:00pm	USD	Consumer Sentiment (p)	75.0	76.1
H O T	Measures consumer attitudes concerning both the present situation and future expectations. It's derived from a monthly 500-person survey conducted by the University of Michigan. Higher sentiment levels are a leading indicator of rising consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy.

Event at Thu - 6 December 2007

Time(GMT):	Currency:	Event:	Forecast:	Previous:
9:30am	GBP	Industrial Production n/n	0.2%	-0.4%
	Measures the total value of output produced by factories, mines, and utilities. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because high levels of production are a sign of a strong economy. Industrial Production reacts quickly to the ups and downs of the business cycle and can be a leading indicator of manufacturing employment, average earnings, and personal income.
9:30am	GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m	0.2%	-0.6%
	Measures the total value of output produced by manufacturers. Manufacturing Production differs from Industrial Production in that it only measures the 13 sub-sectors of production that relate directly to manufacturing. Manufacturing industries make up about 80% of total Industrial Production.
12.00pm	GBP	Interest Rate Statement	5.75%	5.75%
	Each month the Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) votes on where to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "bank rate"). Shortly after each vote, the MPC releases a statement that contains the outcome of their vote, a brief commentary of the economic conditions that effected their decision, and most importantly, clues regarding the outcome of future votes. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down.
12:45pm	EUR	Interest Rate Announcement	4.00%	4.00%
	Each month the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meets to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "minimum bid rate"). Shortly after the meeting they release a statement that contains the decided rate. While no commentary is provided, a press conference regarding the economic conditions that effected their decision is held a few hours afterward. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down.
1:30pm	USD	Unemployment Claims	335K	352K
	Measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because working people tend to spend more money, and consumer spending makes up a large portion of GDP. This weekly indicator produces very timely data, but traders generally view unemployment as a lagging indicator that gives little indication of the economy’s future performance.
1:30pm	CAD	Building Permits m/m	0.7%	-1.7%
	Measures the total value of new residential building permits issued. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because obtaining a permit is one of the first steps in the home construction process. Permits therefore act as a leading indicator for the housing market. A high level of housing activity signals that the construction industry is healthy and that consumers have the capital to make large investments. More importantly, new housing activity creates an economic ripple effect as home owners buy goods such as appliances and furniture for their homes, and builders buy raw materials and hire more workers to meet demand.
1:30pm	EUR	ECB President Trichet Speaks
	European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet will hold a press conference in Frankfurt following the Governing Council's interest rate announcement. The ECB's announcement is void of commentary, so traders look to Trichet's press conference for clues on future monetary policy action. Heavy market volatility is often experienced during these press conferences as traders attempt to decipher Trichet's clues. As head of the central bank's governing body, which is responsible for setting the euro zone's short term interest rate, his speeches can sometimes cause market volatility as traders react to clues regarding future monetary policy.
3:00pm	CAD	Ivey PMI	55.0	57.1
	The Ivey Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers from all sectors of the economy, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
4:00pm	CAD	BOC Advisor Carney Speaks
	Bank of Canada (BOC) Advisor Mark Carney will testify before the Standing Committee on Finance regarding his appointment as the Bank's next Governor. Carney will replace David Dodge as BOC Governor on February 1, 2008, and this testimony will give traders a "first look" at his monetary stance.
11:50pm	JPY	GDP q/q (r)	0.6%	0.6%
	Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the nation's currency.

Event at Wed - 5 December 2007

Time(GMT):	Currency:	Event:	Forecast:	Previous:
12:30am	AUD	GDP q/q	1.0%	0.9%
	Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the nation's currency.
8:30am	EUR	ECB President Trichet Speaks
	European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet will speak at the Journalisten-Symposium organized by Konvent für Deutschland, in Berlin. As head of the central bank's governing body, which is responsible for setting the euro zone's short term interest rate, his speeches can sometimes cause market volatility as traders react to clues regarding future monetary policy.
Tentative	ALL	OPEC Press Conference	-1.9%	6.8%
	The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold a press conference in Abu Dhabito. OPEC nations contribute 40% of the world's oil, and their decisions can have a significant effect on oil prices.
1:15pm	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	50K	106K
	Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. ADP, a leading provider of employment solutions for businesses, releases this indicator two days before the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report. While the indicator has only been in existence since early 2007, it's shown some predictive value in regard to the BLS report.
1:30pm	USD	Nonfarm Productivity q/q (r)	5.7%	4.9%
	Measures the annualized quarterly growth in labor efficiency for producing goods and services outside the farming sector. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because a decrease in efficiency is comparable to an increase in wages. When businesses pay more for labor, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so traders view wage inflation as a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
3:00pm	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	55.0	55.8
	The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
3:00pm	USD	Factory Orders m/m	0.1%	0.2%
	Measures the value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods. Factory Orders tend to have a low impact because it reports much of the same information contained in the Durable Goods Orders report released over a week earlier.
8:00pm	NZD	ISM Manufacturing Prices	8.25%	8.25%
	Eight times per year the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meets to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "official cash rate"). Shortly after the meeting they release a statement that contains the decided rate, a brief commentary of the economic conditions that effected their decision, and most importantly, clues regarding the outcome of future meetings. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down.
8:30pm	CAD	BOC Advisor Carney Speaks
	Bank of Canada (BOC) Advisor Mark Carney will testify before the Standing Committee on Finance regarding his appointment as the Bank's next Governor. Carney will replace David Dodge as BOC Governor on February 1, 2008, and this testimony will give traders a "first look" at his monetary stance.

Event at Tuesday, 4 December 2007

Time(GMT):	Currency:	Event:	Forecast:	Previous:
12:01am	GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y	1.3%	1.0%
	The British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor measures the change in value of like-for-like (i.e. same-store) sales at surveyed retailers, which effectively excludes stores that have been open for less than a year.
12:30am	AUD	Retail Sales m/m	0.6%	0.8%
	Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.
12:30am	AUD	Building Approvals m/m	-1.9%	6.8%
	Measures the number of new residential building permits issued. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because obtaining a permit is one of the first steps in the home construction process. Permits therefore act as a leading indicator for the housing market. A high level of housing activity signals that the construction industry is healthy and that consumers have the capital to make large investments. More importantly, new housing activity creates an economic ripple effect as home owners buy goods such as appliances and furniture for their homes, and builders buy raw materials and hire more workers to meet demand.
10:00am	EUR	PPI m/m	0.4%	0.4%
	The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.
2:00pm	CAD	Interest Rate Statement	4.5%	4.5%
	Eight times per year the Bank of Canada (BOC) Governing Council meets to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "overnight rate"). Shortly after the meeting they release a statement that contains the decided rate, a brief commentary of the economic conditions that effected their decision, and most importantly, clues regarding the outcome of future meetings. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down.
10:30pm	AUD	Interest Rate Statement	6.75%	6.75%
	Each month, excluding January, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board meets to set the nation's short term interest rate (i.e., "cash rate"). The Board announces the decided rate shortly after the meeting, and when there is a change in rates they also releases a statement that contains the economic conditions that effected their decision. A rising trend in interest rates has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Short term rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 3%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down.

Technical Outlook at Sunday, 3 Dec 2007

(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.4693 1.4785, 1.4676

USD/ JPY 110.90 111.21, 109.64

GBP/ USD 2.0571 2.0698, 2.0532

USD/ CHF 1.1278 1.1290, 1.1159

AUD/ USD 0.8847 0.8894, 0.8808

USD/CAD 0.9992 1.0011, 0.9920

NZD/USD 0.7670 0.7752, 0.7664

EUR/ JPY 162.88 163.82, 161.82

EUR/ GBP 0.7140 0.7163, 0.7128

EUR/ CHF 1.6570 1.6587, 1.6479

GBP/ JPY 228.08 229.31, 226.10

CHF/ JPY 98.26 99.05, 98.12

Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD - USD/ JPY

L1. 1.4160 1.4780 111.40 116.55

L2. 1.4045 1.4870 110.25 118.35

L3. 1.3950 1.4990 106.95 120.55

GBP/ USD - USD/ CHF

L1. 2.0600 2.1140 1.1160 1.1465

L2. 2.0445 2.1230 1.1030 1.1575

L3. 2.0240 2.1350 1.0900 1.1715

AUD/ USD - USD/ CAD

L1. 0.9010 0.9410 0.9020 0.9570

L2. 0.8925 0.9500 0.8940 0.9665

L3. 0.8805 0.9615 0.8830 0.9825

NZD/ USD - EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.7625 0.7890 163.85 168.00

L2. 0.7555 0.7970 162.90 168.80

L3. 0.7415 0.8080 161.75 169.95

EUR/ GBP - EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.6915 0.7020 1.6510 1.6850

L2. 0.6840 0.7070 1.6400 1.6920

L3. 0.6710 0.7140 1.6290 1.7040

GBP/ JPY - CHF/ JPY

L1. 232.50 243.55 98.15 100.70

L2. 231.60 246.95 96.95 101.85

L3. 230.20 251.10 94.45 102.90